Good Times Ahead

I spent my evening last night with some luminaries from the world of atmospheric science. Went to the UW to hear a lecture by Dr. Kerry Emanuel, the author of Divine Wind. He's the fellow from MIT who's made the somewhat controversial argument that global warming has had an affect on the ferocity and duration of hurricanes.

Dr. Emanuel was introduced by Jeff Renner, who has an incredibly melifulous voice. I swear, he could talk his way into a nun's pants. Renner then sat right in front of me, and I'm delighted to announce that he was an extraordinarily well-concealed bald spot.

The lecture itself was fucking fascinating. I learned a lot more than I can convey here. Suffice it to say that hurricanes are essentially heat engines - near the surface, the air and water heat up as they move toward the eye. At the eye, the hot air rises, fast, up to the top of the hurricane. From there, the hot air spreads out to the sides, where it cools and joins other weather patterns.

The whole shebang is driven by the evaporation of sea water. And the best way to make a bigger, badder hurricane is to increase the amount of heat in the reaction. So, if you've got warmer sea water to start with, well, look out.

Globally, there hasn't been an increase in the number of cyclonic storms. But they have increased in frequency, strength, and duration in the Atlantic, where there also happens to be an increase in water temperature.

For now, we can look forward to another decade of increasingly strong hurricanes coming in off the Atlantic. Two things might stop that - El Nino, or a series of volcanic eruptions. El Nino years are typically calm ones for storms. Volcanic eruptions would throw enough sulfites in the air to possibly cool the Atlantic a bit. Otherwise, look out!

Anyway, it was a hell of an interesting lecture. And it really got me thinking. If global warming means more and more mega-storms, at what point do we write Florida and the gulf coast off? What about the oil rigs out on the water? What about the economic damage these storms cause? What about the population migration trends that have more and more people moving down to that neck of the woods? The short answer to all of those questions seems to be that we are well and truly fucked.

I think the atmospheric sciences department will be sponsoring more lectures in the future. If'n any of y'all want to accompany little old me, just drope me a line, yo.